Sometimes, instead of evaluating a single source (e.g., an article or a book), you want to evaluate a claim. For example, you may hear someone claim:
Both of these are myths, not substantiated by robust scholarly research, but have been popularly believed. So how do you know what to trust?
In Daniel T. Willingham's book When Can You Trust the Experts? (2012), he offers the following four-step process for evaluating scientific claims about education:
Willingham argues that you should start evaluating a claim by stripping it to its essentials by being very clear on the following (2012, p. 136):
You should also consider flipping the claims to ensure that you are not being biased by framing effects. For example, an action with an 85% pass rate implies a 15% fail rate.
Here are a few of the suggested actions that Willingham (2012) lists on page 164 and 165 for "stripping" and "flipping" a claim:
Suggested Action | Why You're Doing This |
---|---|
Strip to the form "If I do X, then there is a Y percent chance that Z will happen." | To get rid of emotional appeals, peripheral cues, and proferred analogies that may influence your belief. The scientific method is supposed to be evidence based and uninfluenced by these factors. |
Consider whether the outcome (Z) has an inverse; if so, restate the stripped version of the claim using the inverse. | To be sure that you appreciate all the consequences of the action -- for example, that a "85% percent pass rate" implies a "15% failure rate." We are subject to framing effects; we think something is better if the positive aspects are emphasized rather than the negative. |
Evaluate whether the Change [new curriculum, teaching strategy, software, plan, etc.] is clear; "clear" means that you feel confident that you know how the Change will affect students' minds. | To ensure that the Change is implemented as intended. Changes that sound good can go awry if they are not implemented in the classroom as intended or if students don't do what you're hoping they will do. |
Evaluate whether the outcome (Z) is clear; "clear" means that there is some reasonably objective measure of whatever outcome you expect, how big the change in the outcome will be, and when it will happen. | To be sure you will be able to tell whether or not the promised outcome is happening. |
It is important to trace the origin of a claim, particularly if the source cites other sources as the bases of the claims it makes. Mike Caulfield's SIFT strategy may be helpful here:
Once you have stripped and traced the claim, you can try analyzing the claim itself. Here are a few of the suggested actions that Willingham (2012) lists on page 205 for analyzing a claim:
Suggested Action | Why You're Doing This |
---|---|
Compare the Change's predicted effects to your experience; but bear in mind whether the outcomes you're thinking about are ambiguous, and ask other people whether they have the same impression | Your own accumulated experience may be valuable to you, but it is subject to misinterpretation and memory biases. |
Imagine the opposite outcome for the Change that you predict. | Sometimes when you imagine ways that an unexpected outcome could happen, it's easier to see that your expectation was shortsighted. It's a way of counteracting the confirmation bias. |
Look up research on the Internet | A logical argument in support of a Change is not the same thing as scientific data indicates that it works. You want to know whether such data exist. (p. 196) |
Evaluate what was measured, what was compared, how many kids were tested, and how much the Change helped | The first two items get at how relevant the research really is to your interests. The second two items get at how important the results are. |
Just because a Change is scientifically sound doesn't mean you should adopt it. Here are a couple of the factors that Willingham (2012) suggests that you consider (p. 213):
Factor | Example |
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Implementing a Change likely incurs a cost in time, energy, or other resources. Even if you believe that the promised benefits will accrue, you must weigh them against the anticipated costs. | Reducing class size probably helps student achievement, but the benefit is modest. Meanwhile the cost is enormous because one not only needs more teachers (with salaries and benefits to be paid) but also more classrooms (increasing physical plant costs). |
A Change may work as described, but may also have negative side effects. | A friend of mine decided to homeschool her son. Her husband thought it was a bad idea, and it was the subject of several arguments, which ended when he said, "Fine, do it, but it's your thing. I'm staying out of it." My friend anticipated that homeschooling would be great for her son, but a strain on her marriage. She was right--her husband didn't stay out of it. |